False Priors: The Silent Fractures in Your Logical Backbone.

Welcome to letter #8 of The Behaviorist

A newsletter that aims to make you a borderline behavioral scientist.

Each week, I drop a letter that unmasks one specific human behavior and bias to help you see how it works in your life.

The goal is to know how to outsmart others who might leverage that against you and take control.

Let’s get going.

Table of Contents

1. False Priors: The Silent Fractures in Your Logical …

   1. Bias of The Week - The False Priors

   2. What are False Priors?

   3. Roots of False Priors

      1. 1. Cognitive Shortcuts

      2. 2. Confirmation Bias

      3. 3. Social Learning

      4. 4. Emotional Attachment

   4. Real-Life Examples of False Priors

      1. 1. In Daily Life:

      2. 2. In Professional Settings:

      3. 3. In Education:

      4. 4. In Society and Politics:

   5. Bias Buster - Overcoming False Priors:

   6. Parting Thoughts

Bias of The Week - The False Priors

Ever confidently stated a 'fact' you've known for years, only to discover it was completely wrong later?

Maybe you've always believed that humans only use 10% of their brains, or that sugar makes kids hyperactive.

Or perhaps you've based important decisions on assumptions that turned out to be false.

If any of this sounds familiar, you've experienced the bias of false priors in action.

These scenarios illustrate how false priors have shaped your thinking and decision-making every day.

In this post, you'll learn:

1. What false priors are and the psychology behind them

2. How they shape your beliefs and choices

3. Examples of false priors in everyday life

4. How this bias can be exploited

5. Strategies to recognize and overcome false priors

P.S. If you like to read this letter in a logic tree structure, click and download the image below.

What are False Priors?

False priors are incorrect or outdated beliefs that we use as a foundation for future reasoning and decision-making. 

They're the faulty assumptions we start with before we encounter new information or experiences.

This cognitive bias leads us to maintain and defend beliefs that may have no basis in fact, simply because we've held them for a long time or learned them from sources we trust.

Psychologists suggest that false priors persist because they often serve a purpose - they simplify our world, reinforce our identity, or protect our ego.

And that actually makes a lot of sense.

It's easier to stick with what we 'know' than to constantly question our fundamental beliefs!

The concept of priors comes from Bayesian reasoning, a method of probabilistic inference.

In this context, priors refer to our initial beliefs about the world, which we update as we gather new evidence.

However, when these initial beliefs are incorrect, they can lead to skewed conclusions, even in the face of new information.

For instance, consider a doctor who has prior knowledge that a certain percentage of patients with a specific symptom have a particular disease.

This prior belief will inevitably influence how they interpret the results of a new test conducted on a patient displaying those symptoms.

In essence, relying on flawed priors to analyze new evidence can result in distorted conclusions and misguided decisions.

Surely, a big price to pay later on.

Roots of False Priors

False priors are deeply embedded in how our brains process and store information.

Here's a simplified closer look at the psychological mechanisms that enforce the probability of falling into this bias:

1. Cognitive Shortcuts

Our brains love efficiency. We create mental shortcuts, or heuristics, to make quick decisions without overtaxing our cognitive resources.

While often useful, these shortcuts can lead us to false priors when we overgeneralize or rely too heavily on outdated information.

2. Confirmation Bias

Once we form a belief, we tend to seek out information that confirms it and ignore contradictory evidence.

This reinforces our false priors, making them more resistant to change.

3. Social Learning

Many of our priors come from our social environment - family, friends, culture, and media.

We often accept these beliefs without question, especially if they come from trusted sources.

The best example here is one adhering to certain religious practices or ideas just because they were adopted by his or her family or society without questioning them.

4. Emotional Attachment

We can become emotionally invested in our beliefs, it’ll be painful for us to let go of false priors even when we are presented with contradictory evidence.

I mean, think about the last time you had to let go of an idea or ideology.

I’m certain it was a bit hard to accept the opposite of what you so deeply already believed to be.

Real-Life Examples of False Priors

1. In Daily Life:

• Believing that cold weather causes colds (it's actually viruses)

• Assuming that organic food is always healthier (not necessarily true)

• Thinking that we need to drink 8 glasses of water a day (individual needs vary)

2. In Professional Settings:

• Managers assuming that open-plan offices always boost collaboration (research suggests otherwise)

• An investor might have a prior belief that a particular stock is a safe investment based on past performance.
  If new information emerges indicating potential risks, the investor may ignore it and choose to stick to their original belief (potentially suffering financial losses as a result).

• HR professionals believing that certain personality tests accurately predict job performance (many lack scientific validity)

• Investors relying on outdated market trends to make current decisions

3. In Education:

• Teachers adhering to learning style theories that have been debunked. This is why you see some people take advantage of that to push their ideas or certain influences.

• Students believing that cramming is an effective study method (spaced repetition is more effective)

• Parents assuming that praise for intelligence boosts a child's performance (praising effort is more beneficial)

4. In Society and Politics:

• Voters basing decisions on outdated or false information about candidates or policies

• Voters often base their decisions on preconceived notions about candidates or policies that may not be grounded in factual evidence.
  For example, assumptions about a candidate's economic policies based on party affiliation rather than their actual proposals can lead to misinformed voting.

• Social theories? Colonialism? Jews vs Arabs?
  People often hold false priors about certain groups based on stereotypes.
  When you encounter individuals from those groups, you may interpret their behavior through the lens of these false priors that lead you to biased judgments and decisions.

• Policymakers implementing interventions based on intuitive but incorrect assumptions about human behavior

• People maintaining stereotypes about groups despite contrary evidence

Bias Buster - Overcoming False Priors:

As I was reading about this bias while prepping for this letter, I have distilled the most practical and science-based tools or insights that we can use to bust this bias:

1. Cultivate intellectual humility:

Even Einstein admitted he was wrong about the cosmological constant.

If the father of relativity can change his mind, I think so can we!

2. Seek diverse perspectives:

Try the "Perspective Potluck" - invite friends with different backgrounds to discuss a topic.

You might be surprised by the flavorful ideas served up and will also sharpen up your debating skills.

3. Practice active questioning:

Channel your inner toddler and ask "Why?" five times in a row.

You might uncover assumptions you didn't even know you had.

Fact - This is what the upper management in Toyota do when they plan for new products or problem-solving sessions.

4. Update your knowledge:

Imagine if doctors still used leeches for every ailment.

Updating your knowledge is like giving your brain a software upgrade as far as I can tell.

Who you are now is highly likely to be so different than who you were years ago due to the lessons you learned and the ideas you accepted and incorporated into your own identity.

5. Uncertainty is a great thing:

Uncertainty is like intellectual yoga – it stretches your mind and makes you more flexible.

Its this quest for expanding our insights and mindset that we humans have been able to reach un unexpected level of growth and advancement.

Imagine if we still think that healing is a skill reserved for witch hunters!

6. Use the "steel-manning" technique:

This is hard to do I must admit. But once done, it’s a fantastic tool.

If you're a die-hard dog person, try making the strongest case for why cats are superior pets. (I should start do that!)

You might gain a new appreciation for our feline friends (or at least understand cat people better, or reach the conclusion that dogs = gods! (read ‘dog’ backwardly).

7. Fact-check regularly:

I listen to many podcasts for some of the well-known names like Huberman, Y-combinator and more.

While I find deep value in what they’re offering or saying, I dont take their words to the banks without checking out other established names to have better ideas.

So maybe start small and set up a "Fact-Check Friday" reminder.

Spend 15 minutes each week verifying something you've always believed to be true.

8. Be wary of absolutes:

Only a Sith deals in absolutes... but then again, that statement is an absolute, isn't it? Mind blown!

Let me explain this further.

The Sith in Star Wars are very strict that they only think in black-and-white terms.

Not all truths or ideas are objectives or forever an absolute.

That means everything can be questioned or scrutinized beyond the surface.

Only when you have gone deeper into a topic or a subject that you’d get to firmly have a good unbiased ideas.

Parting Thoughts

We've just scratched the surface of false priors - those sneaky, often invisible assumptions that color our view of the world.

The next time you find yourself absolutely certain about something, pause for a moment. Ask yourself: "Is this really true, or is it just something I've always believed?"

Remember, changing your mind in the face of new evidence is precisely how we grow, learn, and make better decisions.

So, challenge your assumptions, question your 'facts', and be open to new ideas.

After all, the most exciting discoveries often lie just beyond the boundaries of what we think we know.

Until next time, stay curious and keep updating those priors mates!