Welcome to letter #13 of The Behaviorist

A newsletter that aims to make you a borderline behavioral scientist.

Each week, I drop a letter that unmasks one specific human behavior and bias to help you see how it works in your life and how others are using it.

The goal is to know how to outsmart others who might leverage that against you and take control.

Let’s get going.

As always, I like to start my letters by setting the stage with a relatable scenario.

Imagine you're planning your monthly budget.

You recall buying a new laptop, and you're certain it was just a couple of months ago.

Based on this, you decide you can afford another big purchase this month.

Sounds reasonable, right?

But when you check your records, you realize the laptop purchase was actually six months ago, not two.

This is when most of us hit pause and say ‘time really flies’.

Surprise! You've just experienced the telescoping effect in action.

This is just a normal glitch in our memory.

Many of us fall into the trap of misremembering when events occurred, typically pulling distant events too close and pushing recent events too far.

But why does this happen, and what are its implications?

In this post, you'll learn:

• What the telescoping effect is and why it occurs

• The science behind this bias and its potential consequences

• Real-life examples of this bias in various settings

• Practical ways to recognize and overcome this bias in your own life and decision-making

• Bonus - A real-life story that resembles this effect in action

Table of Contents

• Bias of The Week - Telescoping Effect

  • Roots of The Telescoping Effect

    • Memory Decay.

    • Emotional Salience

    • Landmark Events

    • Boundary Model

    • Cognitive Load

  • Real-Life Examples of the Telescoping Effect

  • Bias Buster - Overcoming the Telescoping Effect

    • 1. Awareness and Education

    • 2. Precise Questioning Techniques

    • 3. Utilize Data and Tools

    • 4. Break Tasks into Smaller Steps

    • 5. Visualization Techniques

    • 6. Consult Peers or Mentors:

    • 7. Add Buffer time

  • Parting Words

  • Citations and Resources.

Bias of The Week - Telescoping Effect

In simple terms:

telescoping effect is a cognitive bias where we tend to displace events in time, either recalling them as more recent than they actually were (forward telescoping) or as having occurred longer ago than they actually did (backward telescoping).

This bias affects our perception of time and can lead to errors in decision-making, especially when it comes to planning, budgeting, or recalling past events.

Psychologists have found that this bias is deeply ingrained in our memory processes.

Remember the last time you tried to recall when you last visited the dentist?

You might have been surprised to find out it was longer ago than you thought!

While not as famous as the marshmallow experiment we discussed in the last letter, studies on the telescoping effect have revealed fascinating insights into our memory.

For instance, a study by Janssen, Chessa, and Murre (2006) found that people tend to underestimate the time elapsed since public events occurred, especially for events that happened more than a year ago.

This highlights how our perception of time can be distorted, even for widely known occurrences.

But here's the kicker: the telescoping effect can have serious implications in various aspects of life, from personal finance to legal testimony.

For example, in a study by Betz and Skowronski (1997), participants were asked to recall when they had last engaged in various behaviors.

The results showed significant forward telescoping, with people recalling events as more recent than they actually were.

This phenomenon suggests that our memory for the timing of past events is less reliable than we might think.

It's like thinking you've been exercising regularly for months when in reality, your gym membership has been gathering dust for nearly a year!

Roots of The Telescoping Effect

Let's break down why we're so prone to this bias:

Memory Decay.

As time passes, our memories become less detailed and precise.

This natural decay can make it difficult to accurately place events in time, leading to telescoping errors.

Emotional Salience

Emotionally significant events tend to feel more recent, regardless of when they actually occurred.

This can cause us to pull these events closer in our mental timeline.

Landmark Events

We often use significant life events (like graduations, marriages, or career changes) as temporal anchors.

Events occurring between these landmarks can be difficult to place accurately in time.

Regularity of events routine events that occur regularly (like annual check-ups) are more prone to telescoping errors because they lack unique temporal markers.

Boundary Model

Proposed by Rubin and Baddeley, this model suggests that when we date events, we often rely on bounded periods (e.g., a specific year).

It posits that errors in dating are influenced by these boundaries, leading to a tendency for recent events to be dated more accurately than older ones.

However, some studies challenge this model, indicating that boundaries do not significantly affect date estimation.

Cognitive Load

Factors such as stress or cognitive overload can impair memory accuracy. This can exacerbate the telescoping effect we feel or experience.

When we are preoccupied or overwhelmed, our ability to accurately recall event timelines diminishes, leading to greater distortions in temporal perception.

Real-Life Examples of the Telescoping Effect

In Personal Finance:

We often underestimate how long ago we made large purchases, leading to poor budgeting decisions.

We might think we bought a new car two years ago when it was actually three or four years ago, affecting our perception of our financial situation.

In Health:

Patients may misremember when they last had a medical check-up or started experiencing symptoms, potentially leading to delayed treatments or inaccurate medical histories.

In Academic Research:

Survey respondents might report behaviors (like smoking or alcohol consumption) as more recent than they actually were.

This can skew research results and potentially affect policy decisions.

A perfect related example for this is marketing campaigns.

Businesses often rely on consumer surveys to gauge when customers last purchased products.

Telescoping errors can bias these estimates, leading to ineffective marketing strategies.

In Legal Settings:

Eyewitnesses may misremember the timing of events related to a crime, which obviously can have serious implications for legal proceedings and the reliability of testimony.

In Project Management:

Your team members might underestimate how long ago certain project milestones were achieved.

This can be reflected in leading to overly optimistic timelines for future tasks.

Bias Buster - Overcoming the Telescoping Effect

1. Awareness and Education

- Understand the Bias: Familiarize yourself with the telescoping effect and its implications. This foundational knowledge can help you recognize when you might be falling prey to it.

- Reflect on Past Experiences: Analyze previous instances where you misjudged the timing of events. Understanding your own patterns can enhance future accuracy.

2. Precise Questioning Techniques

- Clear Time Frames: When asking about past events, use specific time frames to minimize ambiguity.

For example, instead of asking, "When did you last see the doctor?" specify "When did you last see the doctor in the last year?"

- Bounded Recall Method: This technique involves reminding participants of prior events before asking about additional occurrences. This can help anchor their memories more accurately.

3. Utilize Data and Tools

- Time-Tracking Tools: Implement tools that provide objective feedback on how long tasks take or when events occurred.

This can help counteract optimistic biases by grounding estimates in actual data.

- Benchmarking: Familiarize yourself with industry standards or historical data from similar projects to adjust your expectations realistically.

4. Break Tasks into Smaller Steps

Divide larger projects into smaller, manageable tasks.

This not only makes estimating time easier but also helps in tracking progress more accurately.

5. Visualization Techniques

Encourage detailed planning by visualizing when and where your tasks will be completed.

This method has been shown to lead to more realistic goal-setting and fewer interruptions during task execution.

6. Consult Peers or Mentors:

Share your plans with trusted colleagues or friends who can provide realistic assessments and highlight potential pitfalls that you may have overlooked.

7. Add Buffer time

When planning, incorporate extra time into your estimates to account for unforeseen delays or interruptions.

A common guideline is to double your original estimate.

To put some of these points in practice:

• Personal Finance: Keep a detailed record of purchases and their dates. This can help you avoid underestimating the age of significant financial decisions.

• Academic Research: Researchers should design surveys that clearly define time periods and use bounded recall techniques to gather more accurate data.

• Legal Settings: Legal professionals can train witnesses on how to accurately recall events, potentially using timelines or visual aids.

• Project Management: Teams should regularly review project timelines against actual completion dates to adjust future planning processes accordingly.

Parting Words

Albert Einstein wisely said:

"The distinction between the past, present and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion." 

Perhaps our tendency to telescope events is just another manifestation of time's illusory nature.

After all, time waits for no one, but with this knowledge, at least we can try to keep better track of it!

Until next time, stay focused.

Leo

Citations and Resources.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limb_telescoping

[2] https://www.calendar.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy-why-we-underestimate-time-and-overestimate-our-abilities/

[3] https://www.memtime.com/blog/how-to-avoid-the-planning-fallacy

[4] https://www.gatewayfoundation.org/blog/what-is-telescoping/

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telescoping_effect

[6] https://www.thebehavioralscientist.com/glossary/telescoping-effect

[7] https://moonlightmountainrecovery.com/blog/understanding-the-telescoping-effect-in-addiction/

[8] https://academic.oup.com/wber/article/36/4/889/6698557