Welcome to letter #11 of The Behaviorist

A newsletter that aims to make you a borderline behavioral scientist.

Each week, I drop a letter that unmasks one specific human behavior and bias to help you see how it works in your life.

The goal is to know how to outsmart others who might leverage that against you and take control.

Let’s get going.

Table of Contents

• Bias of The Week - False Consensus Effect

  • What is the False Consensus Effect

  • Roots of the False Consensus Effect

    • Selective Exposure:

    • Cognitive Availability:

    • Desirability Bias:

    • Motivational Factors:

    • Group Polarization:

  • Real-Life Examples of the False Consensus Effect

  • Bias Buster - Overcoming the False Consensus Effec …

  • Parting Words

Bias of The Week - False Consensus Effect

Imagine you're a vegetarian for a second even if youre not.

You might naturally assume that most of your friends and family are also vegetarians, or at least support your choice.

However, when you start talking about it, you might be surprised to find that many of them are meat-eaters.

You’ve assumed that most people would make the same choices or share the same opinions as you.

Perhaps you’ve been surprised when others don’t see things the way you do.

It can be a bit jarring, right?

You might even question their judgment or wonder how they could possibly see things differently.

If this rings true, you’ve likely experienced the false consensus effect.

So, in this post, you'll learn:

1. What the false consensus effect is and what causes it.

2. The roots of this bias and what the science says.

3. Real-life examples of this bias in action

4. Practical ways to recognize it when others use it against you.

A lot to cover, so lets get right into it.

What is the False Consensus Effect

In simple terms:

The false consensus effect is a cognitive bias where we overestimate how much others share our beliefs, opinions, and behaviors.

We assume that our way of thinking is typical, which can lead to misunderstandings and poor judgments about the world around us.

Psychologists believe this occurs because we tend to surround ourselves with people who are similar to us, reinforcing our own viewpoints.

There have been many studies that put this in action.

Ever heard of the sandwich board experiment?

In this study, participants were asked if they would wear a sandwich board advertising a restaurant.

They could agree or refuse, with the assurance that they could opt out.

The findings were interesting.

Among those who agreed to wear the board, 62% thought others would also agree, while 33% of those who refused believed others would also refuse.

This showcases the tendency to project one's own choices onto others.

This makes sense since our social circles, media consumption, and even workplaces often reflect our own attitudes and beliefs.

For example, if you’re passionate about environmental issues, you might assume most people are similarly concerned about climate change.

All while ignoring the fact that many people just don’t share the same level of urgency.

It’s easy to fall into this trap, especially when we’re not exposed to different perspectives on a regular basis.

Here's another example you're probably more familiar with:

Think of a group of friends who all enjoy a particular hobby, like watching mainly drama-based movies.

They might convince themselves that "everyone loves these kinds of movies" and be shocked when someone else expresses disinterest. (Im sure we all had this moment!)

The bias can create an illusion of agreement, even in cases where a large portion of society may actually think differently.

Roots of the False Consensus Effect

Let's break down why we’re so prone to this bias and break some scientific explanations in simple terms:

Selective Exposure:

We tend to associate with those who share similar beliefs and values as we know by now.

All of which creates a homogeneous social environment.

This selective exposure reinforces the perception that our opinions are widely held, leading to an inflated sense of consensus.

Cognitive Availability:

We are more likely to recall our own thoughts and actions than those of others.

This availability heuristic can cause us to believe that our experiences and beliefs are more common than they actually are.

Desirability Bias:

We may overestimate the prevalence of our views because we perceive them as socially desirable or acceptable.

For instance, you might believe that everyone prefers to work from home because you find it comfortable.

But as a result, you are more likely to fail to consider that others may thrive in an office environment.

Motivational Factors:

The need for belonging and social acceptance can lead us to project our beliefs onto others.

When we feel that our views align with a larger group, it enhances our self-esteem and reinforces our identity within that group.

Group Polarization:

This is how most terrible ideas stay longer than they should be.

People in similar groups often develop stronger opinions, which can create the illusion that their beliefs are more widely accepted than they really are.

For example, a group of environmental activists may become so focused on their views that they believe most people share their extreme stance on climate change, even if that’s not the case.

Real-Life Examples of the False Consensus Effect

1. In Politics

Political discourse is rife with false consensus bias.

People often overestimate the popularity of their preferred candidate or political stance because they engage with like-minded individuals or media outlets.

A person who believes that their political party’s values are "common sense" may be genuinely shocked when election results don't align with their expectations.

It’s like thinking your favorite team is bound to win the championship because "everyone supports them", only to discover that the competition is tougher than you thought.

2. In Marketing

Marketers often face the challenge of overcoming their own false consensus bias.

They may assume that their target audience will respond positively to an ad campaign simply because they and their colleagues like it.

But when the campaign fails to resonate with the broader public, it becomes clear that their assumptions about consumer preferences were skewed.

3. In Social Life

This bias often shows up in our social lives as we touched upon briefly earlier with the movie example.

This scenario plays out in almost all aspects of our lives.

You might assume that everyone at a party will enjoy a certain type of music, just because it’s your favorite.

When others don't share the same enthusiasm as you, you’re left wondering "those folks surely have a terrible music taste because who wouldn’t love this song!?"

Its the same concept here even in relationships.

You might assume that your partner would love to spend the weekend hiking only to see later on that they prefer the company of a blanket.

4. At Work

This how most poor decision-making go terrible.

A manager might push forward with a plan they believe everyone supports only to find out later that many team members had reservations.

It’s like setting a meeting time that works for you, assuming it’s convenient for everyone else.

Bias Buster - Overcoming the False Consensus Effect

1. Cultivate Self-Awareness

This is a hard one to simply just flip a switch and become aware. (I wrote an in-depth post about it on my blog if you want to check)

It requires a deep sense of introspection and a battle with the ego.

Ask yourself questions like:

1. "Why do I think this way?"

"Could others have a different perspective?"

This self-questioning can help you recognize that your views are not universal but rather one among many.

An easy exercise to do here is to challenge one strongly held belief you have each week by researching opposing viewpoints and summarizing them.

This will shift your mind from judgement to simply understanding.

2. Seek Diverse Perspectives

Its actually quite good to engage with individuals from various backgrounds, cultures, and belief systems.

This exposure can challenge your assumptions and broaden your understanding of differing viewpoints.

For example, join a diverse book club or discussion group that explores various topics that can allow for rich conversations that highlight different perspectives.

You never know how youd think about some things after a while.

This is closely tied to having an open dialogue be it at work, home, with friends, and other settings.

The point here is to try to put yourself in other’s shows and make a conscious effort to understand others' viewpoints

This can help you gain insight into why they think differently and challenge your own assumptions.

3. Utilize Technology Wisely

Leverage technology to expose yourself to diverse content.

Use browser extensions or apps that intentionally introduce varied perspectives into your news feed.

An easy way to achieve that is on You Tube.

If you haven’t noticed, when you scroll through on your account there, there’s an option ‘new to you’ that will totally change the experience and topics to be suggested.

I actually find that very intriguing and thats how I found some of my favorite channels as a result.

4. Reflect on Past Experiences

Recall instances where you were surprised by others' opinions that differed from yours.

Use these reflections to remind yourself that not everyone shares your views.

For example, before discussing contentious topics, predict how others might respond based on previous experiences.

This is key if youre engaged in deep heated talks or debates. Why?

Because this can help keep reality at the forefront of your mind and ready to face any argument if necessary.

Parting Words

Just remember, assuming everyone thinks like you is like bringing your own fan club to the concert: you’ll always be the star.

But hey, the world’s got a lot more tunes than just yours!